Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.014831 0.016817 0.018978 0.021502 0.024372 0.027535 0.031290
2025-04-13 0.011163 0.013756 0.016822 0.020719 0.025549 0.031349 0.038859
2025-04-20 0.009735 0.012695 0.016400 0.021390 0.027952 0.036310 0.047804
2025-04-27 0.008687 0.011863 0.016030 0.021914 0.030036 0.040898 0.056600
2025-05-04 0.007933 0.011275 0.015842 0.022560 0.032235 0.045736 0.066124
2025-05-11 0.007073 0.010416 0.015149 0.022370 0.033169 0.048818 0.073391
2025-05-18 0.006424 0.009770 0.014665 0.022387 0.034341 0.052273 0.081463
2025-05-25 0.005790 0.009070 0.014014 0.022057 0.034911 0.054820 0.088322
2025-06-01 0.005400 0.008698 0.013814 0.022380 0.036488 0.059015 0.098137
2025-06-08 0.004956 0.008193 0.013348 0.022216 0.037241 0.061922 0.106072
2025-06-15 0.004725 0.008009 0.013374 0.022849 0.039343 0.067195 0.118469
2025-06-22 0.004261 0.007390 0.012624 0.022091 0.038991 0.068261 0.123593
2025-06-29 0.003915 0.006950 0.012148 0.021783 0.039426 0.070783 0.131683
2025-07-06 0.003523 0.006395 0.011425 0.020972 0.038884 0.071518 0.136565
2025-07-13 0.003398 0.006308 0.011522 0.021652 0.041134 0.077526 0.151997
2025-07-20 0.003262 0.006186 0.011540 0.022182 0.043139 0.083240 0.167404
2025-07-27 0.003152 0.006103 0.011623 0.022836 0.045433 0.089700 0.184929
2025-08-03 0.002945 0.005814 0.011289 0.022644 0.046025 0.092849 0.195953
2025-08-10 0.002781 0.005596 0.011072 0.022661 0.047035 0.096915 0.209285
2025-08-17 0.002592 0.005311 0.010701 0.022327 0.047282 0.099420 0.219478
2025-08-24 0.002488 0.005191 0.010649 0.022654 0.048950 0.105046 0.237098
2025-08-31 0.002343 0.004973 0.010378 0.022489 0.049536 0.108389 0.249882
2025-09-07 0.002283 0.004933 0.010476 0.023129 0.051951 0.115946 0.273137